NHL · Friday, 9 October, MSK · T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights — Toronto Maple Leafs
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:3 SOCame true
In short
Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Vegas Golden Knights to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.
Vegas Golden Knights are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- Vegas Golden Knights are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.6.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Vegas Golden Knights 4 wins, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vegas Golden Knights — Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.5–2.6 | |
| Vegas Golden Knights to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Vegas Golden Knights
- Vegas Golden Knights goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10away · Seattle Kraken6:2
- 05.10away · Vancouver Canucks3:2
- 03.10Anaheim Ducks3:4
- 30.09Chicago Blackhawks5:2
- 15.06Carolina Hurricanes0:3
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
- 30.09Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 16.04away · Ottawa Senators1:3
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — Vegas Golden Knights3:6
- 16.01.2026Vegas Golden Knights — Toronto Maple Leafs6:5 OT
- 06.03.2025Vegas Golden Knights — Toronto Maple Leafs5:2
- 21.11.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Vegas Golden Knights3:0
- 28.02.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Vegas Golden Knights2:6
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 6 | 5 | +11 | 11 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Next matches
- Colorado AvalancheToronto Maple Leafs11 October · NHL71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%3:6Final score 3:6. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- Vegas Golden KnightsLos Angeles Kings11 October · NHL60401The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1OTFinal score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.2
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%6:1Final score 6:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%0:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 71291The most likely outcome came true: 120%7:2Final score 7:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 5:2.5.7
- 63371The most likely outcome came true: 123%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.1
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
- 60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →