Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Alcaraz C. — Munar J.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Alcaraz C.88%
Munar J.12%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Alcaraz C. to win (88%), came true.

Alcaraz C. are clear favourites: 88% against 12% for the opponent.

Over 19.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Alcaraz C. 2023, Munar J. 1623.

Probabilities

Games over 19.549%
Games under 19.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Alcaraz C. games
  • Munar J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Alcaraz C.

  • 04.10Shapovalov D.1:0
  • 03.10Arnaldi M.2:0
  • 01.10Michelsen A.2:1

Munar J.

  • 04.10Jacquet K.2:0
  • 02.10Faria J.2:0
  • 01.10Fritz T.2:1
  • 29.09Kovacevic A.2:0
  • 28.09Giron M.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Alcaraz C.Lehecka J.6 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • Munar J.Brooksby J.8 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 88% will not happen in roughly 12 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →