Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK

Alcaraz C. — Lehecka J.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Alcaraz C.79%
Lehecka J.21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Alcaraz C. to win (79%), came true.

Alcaraz C. are clear favourites: 79% against 21% for the opponent.

Over 21.5 games — 47%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Alcaraz C. 2025, Lehecka J. 1755.

Probabilities

Games over 21.547%
Games under 21.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Alcaraz C. games
  • Lehecka J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Alcaraz C.

  • 05.10Munar J.2:1
  • 04.10Shapovalov D.1:0
  • 03.10Arnaldi M.2:0
  • 01.10Michelsen A.2:1

Lehecka J.

  • 05.10Vacherot V.2:0
  • 04.10Vallejo D.2:0
  • 03.10Humbert U.2:1
  • 01.10Bergs Z.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Lehecka J.Borges N.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Cerundolo J. M.Alcaraz C.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.19.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →