Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

Navone M. — Carreno-Busta P.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Navone M.49%
Carreno-Busta P.51%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Carreno-Busta P. to win (51%), came true.

Evenly matched: Navone M. 49%, Carreno-Busta P. 51%.

Over 22.5 games — 46%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Navone M. 1566, Carreno-Busta P. 1616.

Probabilities

Games over 22.546%
Games under 22.554%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Navone M. games
  • Carreno-Busta P. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Navone M.

  • 01.10De Minaur A.0:2

Carreno-Busta P.

  • 02.10Medvedev D.0:2
  • 29.09Mannarino A.2:0
  • 28.09Zhou Y.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Tabilo A.Carreno-Busta P.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →