Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Tabilo A. — Carreno-Busta P.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Tabilo A.56%
Carreno-Busta P.44%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tabilo A. to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Tabilo A. are slightly stronger: 56% against 44%.

Over 22.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Tabilo A. 1619, Carreno-Busta P. 1621.

Probabilities

Games over 22.550%
Games under 22.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Tabilo A. games
  • Carreno-Busta P. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Tabilo A.

  • 03.10Shapovalov D.1:2
  • 30.09Paul T.2:0
  • 25.09Mannarino A.0:2

Carreno-Busta P.

  • 08.10Navone M.2:1
  • 02.10Medvedev D.0:2
  • 29.09Mannarino A.2:0
  • 28.09Zhou Y.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →