Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

van Assche L. — Bu Y.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
van Assche L.41%
Bu Y.59%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Bu Y. to win (59%), came true.

Bu Y. are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

Over 23.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: van Assche L. 1504, Bu Y. 1540.

Probabilities

Games over 23.548%
Games under 23.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • van Assche L. games
  • Bu Y. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

van Assche L.

  • 30.09Fils A.0:2

Bu Y.

  • 02.10Djokovic N.1:2
  • 30.09Cerundolo J. M.2:1
  • 27.09Safiullin R.0:2
  • 26.09Majchrzak K.2:1
  • 24.09Zheng M.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Bu Y.Ruud C.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →