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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ofelia Rosenzuaig

Agropecuario — Colegiales

Model prediction and result

0:3Missed
Agropecuario47%
Draw30%
Colegiales23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Agropecuario to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.

Agropecuario are clear favourites: 47% against 23% for the opponent, draw 30%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Agropecuario are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Agropecuario — Colegiales What is xG?1.3–0.8
Agropecuario not to lose77%
Colegiales not to lose53%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

Match events

  1. 15′Emanuel Insúa · Colegiales
  2. 18′Rodrigo Monserrat · Colegiales0:1
  3. 49′Mauro Albertengo · Colegiales0:2
  4. 55′Leonardo González · Colegiales
  5. 75′Franco Malagueño · Colegiales
  6. 94′Lucas Juárez · Colegiales0:3
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Facundo Montiel ↔ Rodrigo Monserrat · Colegiales
  2. 46′Rodrigo Castro ↔ Natanael Pereyra · Agropecuario
  3. 46′Carlos Auzqui ↔ Danilo Díaz · Agropecuario
  4. 68′Nicolás Toloza ↔ Mauro Albertengo · Colegiales
  5. 68′Franco Zicarelli ↔ Lucio Castillo · Colegiales
  6. 69′Brian Leonel Blando ↔ Milton Ramos · Agropecuario
  7. 78′Lucas Juárez ↔ Leonardo González · Colegiales
  8. 87′Mateo Mamani ↔ Enzo Trinidad · Colegiales

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Agropecuario

  1. GKLuciano Acosta
  2. DFTomás Lecanda
  3. DFAlan Pérez
  4. DFFacundo Sánchez
  5. DFMilton Ramos69′
  6. MFRodrigo Mosqueira
  7. MFBraian Aranda
  8. MFNatanael Pereyra46′
  9. FWJuan Cruz Vega
  10. FWAlejandro Gagliardi
  11. FWDanilo Díaz46′
Came on (3)
  1. MFCarlos Auzqui44′
  2. FWBrian Leonel Blando21′
  3. MFRodrigo Castro44′

Colegiales

  1. GKEmilio Di Fulvio
  2. DFEmanuel Insúa
  3. DFFacundo Rivero
  4. DFFranco Malagueño
  5. MFElías Ocampo
  6. MFFederico Marín
  7. MFEnzo Trinidad87′
  8. FWLucio Castillo68′
  9. FWRodrigo Monserrat46′
  10. FWMauro Albertengo68′
  11. FWLeonardo González78′
Came on (5)
  1. FWMateo Mamani3′
  2. MFFranco Zicarelli22′
  3. MFFacundo Montiel44′
  4. FWNicolás Toloza22′
  5. MFLucas Juárez12′

Form

Agropecuario

  • 10.10away · Quilmes1:0
  • 04.10CA Ferrocarril Midland0:0
  • 27.09away · Atlanta0:1
  • 20.09Gimnasia y Tiro1:0
  • 14.09away · San Martín de Tucumán0:3

Colegiales

  • 10.10Tristán Suárez0:0
  • 04.10away · Atlético Güemes1:0
  • 27.09Chacarita Juniors2:1
  • 20.09away · San Martín San Juan0:2
  • 12.09Nueva Chicago1:0

Head to head

  • 30.05.2026Colegiales — Agropecuario0:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →