Saudi Pro League, round 11 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Al Ahli — Al Khaleej
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Al Ahli are clear favourites: 79% against 7% for the opponent, draw 15%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Ahli — Al Khaleej What is xG? | 2.5–0.8 | |
| Al Ahli not to lose | 93% | |
| Al Khaleej not to lose | 21% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Ahli
- Al Ahli goals
- Al Khaleej goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
- 11.09Al Hazem3:1
- 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
- 04.09Al Riyadh5:0
- 01.09away · Al Hilal0:3
- 10.10away · Al-Ettifaq1:1
- 12.09Al Nassr FC1:1
- 07.09Al Riyadh0:0
- 03.09away · Neom SC0:3
- 28.08Al Hilal1:5
Head to head
- 20.05.2026Al Khaleej — Al Ahli1:4
- 20.01.2026Al Ahli — Al Khaleej4:1
- 07.03.2025Al Ahli — Al Khaleej2:2
- 18.10.2024Al Khaleej — Al Ahli0:3
- 29.12.2023Al Ahli — Al Khaleej1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 8 | 5 | +10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej | 8 | 0 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly | 7 | 0 | -8 | 3 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- Al HazemAl-Fayhapreliminary4230281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Al Fateh FCAl Shababpreliminary3329372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →