Saudi Pro League, round 11 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Al Fateh FC — Al Shabab
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Al Fateh FC 33%, Al Shabab 37%, draw 29%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Shabab are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Al Fateh FC — No. 16, 3 pts; Al Shabab — No. 12, 7 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Al Fateh FC: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Fateh FC 2 wins, Al Shabab 1, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Al Fateh FC 13, Al Shabab 11.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Fateh FC — Al Shabab What is xG? | 1.6–1.6 | |
| Al Fateh FC not to lose | 63% | |
| Al Shabab not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Fateh FC
- Al Fateh FC goals
- Al Shabab goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Al Ahli0:4
- 13.09away · Neom SC2:4
- 09.09Al Diriyah1:2
- 05.09away · Al-Taawoun0:0
- 29.08Al Ittihad0:0
- 11.10Al-Taawoun3:0
- 12.09Al-Fayha0:0
- 09.09away · Al Kholood1:2
- 04.09Al Hilal0:2
- 30.08away · Al Hazem1:1
Head to head
- 28.04.2026Al Shabab — Al Fateh FC1:1
- 03.01.2026Al Fateh FC — Al Shabab2:0
- 01.05.2025Al Fateh FC — Al Shabab3:1
- 05.12.2024Al Shabab — Al Fateh FC2:2
- 27.05.2024Al Shabab — Al Fateh FC3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | -8 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly | 7 | 0 | -8 | 3 |
| 16, Relegation | Al Fateh FC | 8 | 0 | -11 | 3 |
| 17, Relegation | Al-Taawoun | 8 | 0 | -12 | 3 |
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- Al HazemAl-Fayhapreliminary4231281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Al AhliAl Khaleejpreliminary791561The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →