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Saudi Pro League, round 11 · Friday, 23 October, (UTC+3) · Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium

Al Ahli — Al Khaleej

Model prediction and result

4:1Came true
Al Ahli79%
Draw14%
Al Khaleej6%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Al Ahli to win (79%), came true.

Al Ahli are clear favourites: 79% against 6% for the opponent, draw 14%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Al Ahli are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Al Ahli are 343 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Al Ahli: 3 wins in a row; Al Khaleej: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Al Ahli 4 wins, Al Khaleej 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Al Ahli — Al Khaleej What is xG?2.5–0.8
Al Ahli not to lose94%
Al Khaleej not to lose21%
No draw86%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

Match events

  1. 9′Ahmed Asiri · Al Khaleej
  2. 11′Ivan Toney · Al Ahli1:0
  3. 23′Mohammed Al Khabrani · Al Khaleej
  4. 48′Joshua King · Al Khaleej
  5. 57′Artem Bondarenko · Al Ahli2:0
  6. 61′Trincão · Al Ahli3:0
  7. 69′Mateo Benegas · Al Khaleej
  8. 87′Thamer Al Khaibri · Al Khaleej3:1
  9. 96′Ivan Toney · penalty · Al Ahli4:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Thamer Al Khaibri ↔ Joshua King · Al Khaleej
  2. 46′Saleh Al Amri ↔ Ahmed Asiri · Al Khaleej
  3. 66′Matheus Gonçalves ↔ Feras Al Brikan · Al Ahli
  4. 66′Mohammed Abdulrahman ↔ Saeed Baattia · Al Ahli
  5. 66′Ziyad Al Johani ↔ Eduard Spertsyan · Al Ahli
  6. 67′Miguel Crespo ↔ Mohammed Al Khabrani · Al Khaleej
  7. 79′Hussain Al Eissa ↔ Musa Barrow · Al Khaleej
  8. 79′Bader Munshi ↔ Majed Kanabah · Al Khaleej
  9. 81′Abdullah Radif ↔ Artem Bondarenko · Al Ahli
  10. 81′Ramez Al Attar ↔ Trincão · Al Ahli

Match statistics

Al AhliAl Khaleej
  • 3.94Expected goals (xG)0.50
  • 60Possession, %40
  • 16Shots6
  • 11On target1
  • 8Big chances1
  • 5Corners1
  • 15Fouls18
  • 4Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Al Ahli

  1. GKAbdulrahman Al Sanbi6.1
  2. DFRoger Ibañez (C)6.8
  3. DFSaeed Baattia66′7.1
  4. DFSaad Yaslam6.7
  5. DFMohammed Sulaiman6.7
  6. MFEduard Spertsyan66′7.3
  7. MFArtem Bondarenko81′8.4
  8. MFValentin Atangana Edoa7.3
  9. FWTrincão81′8.7
  10. FWIvan Toney9.4
  11. FWFeras Al Brikan66′6.8
Came on (5)
  1. MFZiyad Al Johani24′6.1
  2. FWMatheus Gonçalves24′7.0
  3. DFMohammed Abdulrahman24′6.4
  4. FWAbdullah Radif9′
  5. MFRamez Al Attar9′

Al Khaleej

  1. GKMarwan Al Haidari7.4
  2. DFMohammed Al Khabrani (C)67′5.9
  3. DFFawaz Al Soqoor5.7
  4. DFAbdullah Al Hafith6.1
  5. DFAhmed Asiri45′6.5
  6. MFOmar Mascarell6.5
  7. MFMusa Barrow79′6.4
  8. MFPedro Rebocho6.3
  9. MFMajed Kanabah79′6.8
  10. FWJoshua King45′6.3
  11. FWMateo Benegas69′5.5
Came on (5)
  1. MFMiguel Crespo23′5.8
  2. FWSaleh Al Amri45′6.6
  3. MFBader Munshi11′5.8
  4. FWHussain Al Eissa11′7.6
  5. FWThamer Al Khaibri45′7.6

Form

Al Ahli

  • 19.10away · Al-Fayha3:2
  • 09.10away · Al Fateh FC4:0
  • 11.09Al Hazem3:1
  • 08.09away · Al Qadsiah2:3
  • 04.09Al Riyadh5:0

Al Khaleej

  • 18.10away · Al Fateh FC3:2
  • 15.10Al-Fayha2:0
  • 10.10away · Al-Ettifaq1:1
  • 12.09Al Nassr FC1:1
  • 07.09Al Riyadh0:0

Head to head

  • 20.05.2026Al Khaleej — Al Ahli1:4
  • 20.01.2026Al Ahli — Al Khaleej4:1
  • 07.03.2025Al Ahli — Al Khaleej2:2
  • 18.10.2024Al Khaleej — Al Ahli0:3
  • 29.12.2023Al Ahli — Al Khaleej1:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →