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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 13 · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3)

Albion — Deportivo Maldonado

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Albion36%
Draw28%
Deportivo Maldonado36%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Albion to win (36%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 36% fails in about 64 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Albion 36%, Deportivo Maldonado 36%, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Albion: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 2 meetings: Albion 1 win, Deportivo Maldonado 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Albion — Deportivo Maldonado What is xG?1.3–1.4
Albion not to lose64%
Deportivo Maldonado not to lose64%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Albion
  • Albion goals
  • Deportivo Maldonado goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 23′Tobías Figueroa · Albion
  2. 48′Pablo Lacoste · Albion
  3. 49′Renato César · Deportivo Maldonado
  4. 49′Maximiliano González · Deportivo Maldonado
  5. 72′Tomás Moschión · Albion
  6. 79′Santiago Cartagena · Deportivo Maldonado
  7. 80′Santiago Costa · Albion
  8. 85′Iker Zufiaurre · Albion
  9. 85′Federico Puente · Albion
Substitutions (9)
  1. 63′Guillermo López ↔ Santiago Ramírez · Deportivo Maldonado
  2. 74′Joaquín Fernández ↔ Facundo Tealde · Deportivo Maldonado
  3. 75′Ignacio Neira ↔ Francisco Ginella · Albion
  4. 76′Santiago Costa ↔ Agustín Vera · Albion
  5. 76′Iker Zufiaurre ↔ Álvaro López · Albion
  6. 81′Lucas Núñez ↔ Christian Tabó · Deportivo Maldonado
  7. 81′Gonzalo Sosa ↔ Santiago Cartagena · Deportivo Maldonado
  8. 86′Roman Gutierrez ↔ Baltasar Barcia · Albion
  9. 91′Pablo Alcoba ↔ José Álvarez · Albion

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Albion

  1. GKSantiago Silva
  2. DFMatías de los Santos
  3. DFJosé Álvarez
  4. DFPablo Lacoste
  5. DFFederico Puente
  6. MFTomás Moschión
  7. MFFrancisco Ginella75′
  8. FWBaltasar Barcia86′
  9. FWTobías Figueroa
  10. FWAgustín Vera76′
  11. FWÁlvaro López76′
Came on (4)
  1. FWIker Zufiaurre14′
  2. FWIgnacio Neira15′
  3. MFSantiago Costa14′
  4. DFRoman Gutierrez4′

Deportivo Maldonado

  1. GKAdriano Freitas
  2. DFJuan Manuel Ramos
  3. DFJuan Ginzo
  4. DFFacundo Tealde74′
  5. DFNicolás Fuica
  6. MFMaximiliano González
  7. MFSantiago Cartagena81′
  8. MFSantiago Ramírez63′
  9. MFMaximiliano Noble
  10. FWChristian Tabó81′
  11. FWRenato César
Came on (4)
  1. MFGonzalo Sosa9′
  2. FWGuillermo López27′
  3. DFJoaquín Fernández16′
  4. MFLucas Núñez9′

Form

Albion

  • 24.10away · Central Español3:1
  • 18.10Montevideo City Torque2:1
  • 11.10away · Cerro Largo1:0
  • 03.10Defensor Sporting3:2
  • 29.09away · Montevideo Wanderers1:2

Deportivo Maldonado

  • 25.10Danubio2:1
  • 20.10away · Nacional (URU)2:3
  • 10.10Liverpool FC1:1
  • 04.10Central Español3:0
  • 27.09away · Montevideo City Torque2:0

Head to head

  • 11.07.2026Deportivo Maldonado — Albion1:1
  • 25.04.2026Deportivo Maldonado — Albion1:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →