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Argentine Liga Profesional · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio José María Minella

Aldosivi — River Plate

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Model prediction for 5 November

Aldosivi15%
Draw26%
River Plate59%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

River Plate are clear favourites: 59% against 15% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings River Plate are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • River Plate are 188 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Aldosivi 1 win, River Plate 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aldosivi — River Plate What is xG?0.7–1.6
Aldosivi not to lose41%
River Plate not to lose85%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.540%
Total under 2.560%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Total under 2.5” at 60%, the market at 49%.

  • Aldosivi to winModel15%odds 6.67Market12%odds 8.29
  • DrawModel26%odds 3.85Market19%odds 5.15
  • River Plate to winModel59%odds 1.69Market69%odds 1.46
  • Total over 2.5Model40%odds 2.50Market52%odds 1.94
  • Total under 2.5Model60%odds 1.67Market49%odds 2.06
  • Both teams to score: yesModel43%odds 2.33Market45%odds 2.21
  • Both teams to score: noModel57%odds 1.75Market55%odds 1.83

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Aldosivi
  • Aldosivi goals
  • River Plate goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

Aldosivi · out or doubtful: 1

  • Nicolás CorderoInjury · expected back: late November

River Plate · out or doubtful: 7

  • Lucas Martínez QuartaSuspended
  • Gonzalo MontielSuspended
  • Juan MezaMuscle injury · expected back: in a few weeks
  • Aníbal MorenoInjury · expected back: in 1–2 weeks
  • Fausto VeraMuscle injury · expected back: in a few weeks
  • Agustín RubertoInjury · expected back: late January 2027
  • Juan Carlos PortilloInjury · expected back: late November

The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off. See the lineups

Updated 4 November, (UTC+3)

The teams in their last matches

StatAldosiviRiver Plate
Goals scored per match1.21.6
Goals conceded per match1.70.9
xG per match1.061.48
Opponents’ xG1.620.77
Shots15.218.2
On target4.86.5
Corners4.55.6
Cards2.81.6
Possession, %4663

Averages per match: Aldosivi — the last 10, River Plate — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Aldosivi

  1. GKLucas Acosta
  2. DFBraian Cufré
  3. DFNéstor Breitenbruch
  4. DFJoaquín Pombo
  5. DFSantiago Moya
  6. MFNicolás Gaitán (C)
  7. MFLucas Nahuel Castro
  8. MFMartín García
  9. MFAgustín Palavecino
  10. MFFelipe Anso
  11. FWAndrés Vombergar
Bench (12)
  1. DFElías López
  2. MFNicolás Linares
  3. DFLeonardo Sigali
  4. MFFrancisco Perruzzi
  5. GKIgnacio Chicco
  6. DFNicolás Zalazar
  7. DFFederico Laurelli
  8. DFRodrigo González
  9. FWNatanael Guzmán
  10. FWBautista Dadín
  11. FWAlan Sosa
  12. FWAndrés Chávez

River Plate

  1. GKSantiago Beltrán
  2. DFGonzalo Montiel
  3. DFNicolás Otamendi (C)
  4. DFLucas Martínez Quarta
  5. DFMarcos Acuña
  6. MFThiago Almada
  7. MFTobías Andrada
  8. MFTomás Galván
  9. MFLucas Silva
  10. FWLucas Beltrán
  11. FWÁngel Correa
Bench (12)
  1. FWRafael Borré
  2. MFMauro Arambarri
  3. DFGiovanni González
  4. FWSebastián Driussi
  5. DFFrancisco Ortega
  6. GKEzequiel Centurión
  7. DFLautaro Rivero
  8. DFTobías Ramírez
  9. MFJuan Meza
  10. MFValentín Lucero
  11. FWLautaro Pereyra
  12. MFSantiago Espíndola

Form

Aldosivi

  • 31.10away · Racing Club1:2
  • 25.10Belgrano1:0
  • 19.10away · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1:2
  • 09.10Sarmiento1:3
  • 04.10away · Huracán0:1

River Plate

  • 01.11away · Boca Juniors0:1
  • 26.10Racing Club1:0
  • 19.10away · Belgrano3:0
  • 15.10away · Sarmiento1:1
  • 11.10Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1:0

Head to head

  • 18.07.2026River Plate — Aldosivi1:3
  • 26.04.2026River Plate — Aldosivi3:1
  • 24.07.2022Aldosivi — River Plate0:3
  • 27.08.2021River Plate — Aldosivi2:0
  • 03.11.2019Aldosivi — River Plate1:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →