Peruvian Liga 1 · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)
Alianza Atlético — Melgar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Alianza Atlético 33%, Melgar 40%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Melgar higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Alianza Atlético 1 win, Melgar 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza Atlético — Melgar What is xG? | 1.4–1.5 | |
| Alianza Atlético not to lose | 60% | |
| Melgar not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza Atlético
- Alianza Atlético goals
- Melgar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Alianza Atlético | Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 18.1 | 16.7 |
| On target | 5.3 | 6.3 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 52 |
Form
- 31.10ADC Juan Pablo II1:0
- 28.10Deportivo Garcilaso3:2
- 24.10away · Sport Huancayo1:4
- 18.10Universitario1:4
- 11.10away · Sport Boys3:1
- 02.11away · Sport Huancayo0:2
- 30.10Comerciantes Unidos1:1
- 23.10away · UTC Cajamarca2:1
- 18.10Deportivo Garcilaso4:2
- 11.10away · Universitario2:2
Head to head
- 31.05.2026Melgar — Alianza Atlético3:1
- 01.08.2025Alianza Atlético — Melgar0:0
- 24.02.2025Melgar — Alianza Atlético2:1
- 25.07.2024Alianza Atlético — Melgar3:1
- 10.02.2024Melgar — Alianza Atlético1:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →