Peruvian Liga 1 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Alianza Lima — Cienciano
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alianza Lima are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alianza Lima are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Alianza Lima are 231 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Alianza Lima 2 wins, Cienciano 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza Lima — Cienciano What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 87% | |
| Cienciano not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima goals
- Cienciano goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Cusco FC2:1
- 19.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 13.09Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 06.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 30.08Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
- 08.10away · Club Deportivo Moquegua2:0
- 30.09Los Chankas1:1
- 23.09away · Asociación Deportiva Tarma1:2
- 18.09away · Montevideo City Torque0:3
- 11.09Montevideo City Torque2:0
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Cienciano — Alianza Lima0:1
- 29.09.2025Cienciano — Alianza Lima2:1
- 03.05.2025Alianza Lima — Cienciano0:1
- 21.08.2024Alianza Lima — Cienciano3:0
- 14.03.2024Cienciano — Alianza Lima2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →