Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Alianza Lima — FC Cajamarca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alianza Lima are clear favourites: 87% against 4% for the opponent, draw 9%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alianza Lima are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
- Alianza Lima are 409 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- FC Cajamarca: 4 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alianza Lima — FC Cajamarca What is xG? | 2.9–0.6 | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 96% | |
| FC Cajamarca not to lose | 13% | |
| No draw | 91% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima goals
- FC Cajamarca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Alianza Lima | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 18.3 | 14.5 |
| On target | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 3.0 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 46 |
Form
- 04.11Cienciano1:0
- 29.10away · Sporting Cristal2:3
- 25.10away · Deportivo Moquegua1:0
- 18.10Atlético Grau3:1
- 12.10away · Cusco FC2:1
- 02.11away · Sporting Cristal0:5
- 28.10UTC Cajamarca1:3
- 25.10away · Sport Boys2:4
- 18.10Deportivo Moquegua0:1
- 10.10away · Asociación Deportiva Tarma0:0
Head to head
- 31.05.2026FC Cajamarca — Alianza Lima1:1
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Sport HuancayoUniversitariopreliminary3127412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →