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Primera Nacional, round 35 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tres de Febrero

Almagro — Tristán Suárez

Model prediction and result

1:1Came true
Almagro27%
Draw34%
Tristán Suárez39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (34%), came true.

Tristán Suárez are slightly stronger: 39% against 27%, draw 34%.

1.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 39%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Tristán Suárez are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
  • Tristán Suárez are 106 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Tristán Suárez: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Almagro 0 wins, Tristán Suárez 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almagro — Tristán Suárez What is xG?0.8–1.1
Almagro not to lose61%
Tristán Suárez not to lose73%
No draw66%
Both teams to score: yes39%
Both teams to score: no61%
Total over 2.534%
Total under 2.566%

Match events

  1. 26′Sebastián Ramírez · Tristán Suárez
  2. 40′Renzo Conechny · Tristán Suárez
  3. 53′Enzo Martínez · Almagro1:0
  4. 58′Emiliano González · Almagro
  5. 71′Brian Aguilar · Tristán Suárez1:1
  6. 73′Matías Cortave · Almagro
  7. 77′Jonathan Berón · missed penalty · Tristán Suárez
  8. 78′Jonathan Berón · Tristán Suárez
  9. 80′Gonzalo Asís · Almagro
  10. 96′Jonathan Berón · Tristán Suárez
Substitutions (9)
  1. 12′Sebastián Ramírez ↔ Diego Becker · Tristán Suárez
  2. 63′Agustín Gallo ↔ Renzo Conechny · Tristán Suárez
  3. 69′Franco Bustamante ↔ Uriel Villalobos · Almagro
  4. 69′Juan Fernández Pinto ↔ Jeremías Bustos · Almagro
  5. 79′Diego Mastrángelo ↔ Nicolás Fernández · Tristán Suárez
  6. 79′Nicolás Sánchez ↔ Sebastián Ramírez · Tristán Suárez
  7. 83′Joaquin Flores ↔ Enzo Martínez · Almagro
  8. 89′Francisco Marco ↔ Brian Negro · Almagro
  9. 89′Tiziano Dornell ↔ Facundo De La Vega · Almagro

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Almagro

  1. GKEmiliano González
  2. DFNicolás Tolosa
  3. DFGonzalo Asís
  4. DFMatías Cortave
  5. DFBrian Negro89′
  6. DFJulián Vitale
  7. MFJulián Marchioni
  8. MFEnzo Martínez83′
  9. MFJeremías Bustos69′
  10. MFUriel Villalobos69′
  11. FWFacundo De La Vega89′
Came on (5)
  1. DFFrancisco Marco1′
  2. MFFranco Bustamante21′
  3. DFJoaquin Flores7′
  4. MFJuan Fernández Pinto21′
  5. FWTiziano Dornell1′

Tristán Suárez

  1. GKJoaquín Bigo
  2. DFAgustín Baldi
  3. DFBrian Aguilar
  4. DFManuel Guillén
  5. DFMauricio Guzmán
  6. DFNicolás Fernández79′
  7. MFNicolás Del Priore
  8. MFMarcos Enrique
  9. MFDiego Becker12′
  10. FWJonathan Berón
  11. FWRenzo Conechny63′
Came on (4)
  1. DFDiego Mastrángelo11′
  2. FWSebastián Ramírez67′
  3. FWAgustín Gallo27′
  4. MFNicolás Sánchez11′

Form

Almagro

  • 18.10away · Atlético Güemes1:2
  • 10.10Chacarita Juniors2:1
  • 04.10away · San Martín San Juan2:1
  • 27.09Nueva Chicago0:1
  • 19.09away · Temperley1:3

Tristán Suárez

  • 17.10Patronato de Parana1:0
  • 10.10away · Colegiales0:0
  • 03.10Quilmes0:0
  • 27.09away · CA Ferrocarril Midland1:0
  • 21.09Atlanta0:0

Head to head

  • 07.06.2026Tristán Suárez — Almagro0:0
  • 21.06.2025Almagro — Tristán Suárez0:1
  • 15.02.2025Tristán Suárez — Almagro2:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →