Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Ambert Livradois Sud — Le Puy
Model prediction and result
0:4Came true
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, Le Puy to win (74%), came true.
Le Puy are clear favourites: 74% against 9% for the opponent, draw 17%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Le Puy are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Le Puy are 301 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ambert Livradois Sud — Le Puy What is xG? | 0.8–2.4 | |
| Ambert Livradois Sud not to lose | 26% | |
| Le Puy not to lose | 91% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
Form
- 10.01Reims0:0
- 21.12Bordeaux1:0
- 29.11away · FC Chalon1:0
- 15.11away · Dijon ASPTT1:0
- 25.10away · Cournon d'Auvergne5:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →