Super League Greece, round 10 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Aris Thessaloniki — Panetolikos
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Aris Thessaloniki are clear favourites: 69% against 10% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Aris Thessaloniki are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Aris Thessaloniki are 216 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Aris Thessaloniki — No. 6, 16 pts; Panetolikos — No. 10, 9 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Panetolikos: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Aris Thessaloniki 3 wins, Panetolikos 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aris Thessaloniki — Panetolikos What is xG? | 2.0–0.7 | |
| Aris Thessaloniki not to lose | 90% | |
| Panetolikos not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Handicap Aris Thessaloniki
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- Panetolikos goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Aris Thessaloniki | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.48 | 2.03 |
| Shots | 15.8 | 10.6 |
| On target | 5.2 | 3.1 |
| Corners | 6.0 | 3.7 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 46 |
Form
- 01.11away · Levadiakos0:3
- 25.10Atromitos3:1
- 18.10away · Kifisia FC2:1
- 11.10NFC Volos3:2
- 19.09Iraklis0:0
- 01.11OFI Crete0:1
- 24.10away · AEK Athens0:5
- 18.10Olympiacos0:2
- 11.10away · Kifisia FC0:2
- 20.09PAOK Thessaloniki1:3
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Panetolikos — Aris Thessaloniki0:1
- 30.08.2025Aris Thessaloniki — Panetolikos0:2
- 23.02.2025Aris Thessaloniki — Panetolikos2:1
- 09.11.2024Panetolikos — Aris Thessaloniki2:1
- 14.01.2024Panetolikos — Aris Thessaloniki0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | OFI Crete | 9 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Aris Thessaloniki | 9 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | Kifisia FC | 9 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Iraklis | 9 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 9 | 3 | -9 | 9 |
| 11 | Levadiakos | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
Greek Super League on the same day
- 323137XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →