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Super League Greece, round 11 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)

Asteras Tripolis — Aris Thessaloniki

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Model prediction for 23 November

Asteras Tripolis32%
Draw32%
Aris Thessaloniki37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Asteras Tripolis 32%, Aris Thessaloniki 37%, draw 32%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Aris Thessaloniki are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Aris Thessaloniki are 52 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Asteras Tripolis — No. 12, 6 pts; Aris Thessaloniki — No. 6, 16 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1 win, Aris Thessaloniki 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis — Aris Thessaloniki What is xG?1.2–1.3
Asteras Tripolis not to lose63%
Aris Thessaloniki not to lose68%
No draw68%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Asteras Tripolis
  • Asteras Tripolis goals
  • Aris Thessaloniki goals
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  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAsteras TripolisAris Thessaloniki
Goals scored per match1.01.6
Goals conceded per match1.81.7
xG per match1.031.48
Opponents’ xG1.741.48
Shots10.415.8
On target4.35.2
Corners3.96.0
Cards2.12.1
Possession, %4754

Averages per match: Asteras Tripolis — the last 10, Aris Thessaloniki — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Asteras Tripolis

  • 01.11away · PAOK Thessaloniki1:2
  • 24.10Levadiakos0:0
  • 18.10away · Panathinaikos1:5
  • 10.10Atromitos2:1
  • 20.09away · OFI Crete2:2

Aris Thessaloniki

  • 01.11away · Levadiakos0:3
  • 25.10Atromitos3:1
  • 18.10away · Kifisia FC2:1
  • 11.10NFC Volos3:2
  • 19.09Iraklis0:0

Head to head

  • 20.12.2025Asteras Tripolis — Aris Thessaloniki0:1
  • 09.11.2025Aris Thessaloniki — Asteras Tripolis0:0
  • 10.05.2025Aris Thessaloniki — Asteras Tripolis4:2
  • 29.03.2025Asteras Tripolis — Aris Thessaloniki0:2
  • 23.12.2024Asteras Tripolis — Aris Thessaloniki2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
5OFI Crete951314–12+216
6Aris Thessaloniki951313–17-416
7Kifisia FC932412–14-211
11Levadiakos91353–11-86
12Asteras Tripolis91358–17-96
13Atromitos81259–12-35

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →