La Liga, round 13 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Athletic Club — Espanyol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Athletic Club are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletic Club are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Athletic Club are 146 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Athletic Club — No. 7, 15 pts; Espanyol — No. 14, 11 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Athletic Club: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Athletic Club 2 wins, Espanyol 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletic Club — Espanyol What is xG? | 1.8–0.8 | |
| Athletic Club not to lose | 88% | |
| Espanyol not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Athletic Club
- Athletic Club goals
- Espanyol goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Athletic Club | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.78 | 1.18 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.26 | 1.39 |
| Shots | 15.4 | 12.2 |
| On target | 4.4 | 3.4 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 4.0 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 47 |
Form
- 01.11Real Sociedad2:1
- 29.10away · AE Prat6:1
- 25.10Getafe4:0
- 21.10away · Levante1:3
- 17.10away · Valencia0:0
- 30.10away · Villarreal1:0
- 27.10away · Sestao3:4
- 24.10away · Racing Santander1:2
- 17.10Atlético Madrid0:1
- 09.10away · Málaga1:1
Head to head
- 13.05.2026Espanyol — Athletic Club2:0
- 22.12.2025Athletic Club — Espanyol1:2
- 16.02.2025Espanyol — Athletic Club1:1
- 19.10.2024Athletic Club — Espanyol4:1
- 08.04.2023Espanyol — Athletic Club1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 11 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | -11 | 11 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →