Peruvian Liga 1 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético Grau — Cusco FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
In short
Cusco FC are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cusco FC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Cusco FC are 58 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Atlético Grau: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Grau 2 wins, Cusco FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Grau — Cusco FC What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Atlético Grau not to lose | 59% | |
| Cusco FC not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
Model vs market
The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Atlético Grau to win” at 30%, the market at 37%.
- Atlético Grau to winModel30%odds 3.33Market37%odds 2.72
- DrawModel29%odds 3.45Market27%odds 3.77
- Cusco FC to winModel41%odds 2.44Market37%odds 2.72
- Total over 2.5Model49%odds 2.04Market52%odds 1.91
- Total under 2.5Model51%odds 1.96Market48%odds 2.10
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Atlético Grau
- Atlético Grau goals
- Cusco FC goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlético Grau | Cusco FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 10.4 | 15.2 |
| On target | 4.0 | 4.9 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 43 | 55 |
Form
- 01.11Universitario1:3
- 29.10away · Cienciano0:3
- 23.10Asociación Deportiva Tarma1:1
- 18.10away · Alianza Lima1:3
- 08.10Los Chankas0:0
- 01.11Sport Boys0:1
- 29.10away · Los Chankas1:0
- 24.10Sporting Cristal3:1
- 16.10away · Sport Huancayo1:2
- 12.10Alianza Lima1:2
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Cusco FC — Atlético Grau1:0
- 26.10.2025Cusco FC — Atlético Grau1:0
- 19.06.2025Atlético Grau — Cusco FC0:0
- 29.10.2024Cusco FC — Atlético Grau0:1
- 17.05.2024Atlético Grau — Cusco FC4:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →