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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Atlético Güemes — Almagro

Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Atlético Güemes34%
Draw31%
Almagro36%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Atlético Güemes 34%, Almagro 36%, draw 31%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Almagro are 87 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Atlético Güemes: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Atlético Güemes 2 wins, Almagro 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético Güemes — Almagro What is xG?1.1–1.1
Atlético Güemes not to lose64%
Almagro not to lose66%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.542%
Total under 2.558%

Match events

  1. 15′Santiago Farrera · Atlético Güemes1:0
  2. 21′Enzo Martínez · Almagro1:1
  3. 28′Joel Orlando · Almagro
  4. 64′Gonzalo Asís · Almagro
  5. 70′Ciro Leineker · Atlético Güemes2:1
  6. 88′Franco Bustamante · Almagro
Substitutions (5)
  1. 15′Joel Orlando ↔ Tobías Macies · Almagro
  2. 26′Juan Fernández Pinto ↔ Santiago Chamorro · Almagro
  3. 73′Franco Bustamante ↔ Enzo Martínez · Almagro
  4. 76′Axel Pinto ↔ Santiago Farrera · Atlético Güemes
  5. 84′Lucas Guiñazú ↔ Jonas Carranza · Atlético Güemes

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Atlético Güemes

  1. GKLeandro Finochietto
  2. DFFacundo Melillán
  3. DFAlan Gonzalez
  4. DFRodrigo Arnay
  5. DFWalter Juárez
  6. MFGianfranco Baier
  7. MFGianluca Pugliese
  8. MFMilton Gerez
  9. MFSantiago Farrera76′
  10. MFJonas Carranza84′
  11. FWCiro Leineker
Came on (2)
  1. MFAxel Pinto14′
  2. MFLucas Guiñazú6′

Almagro

  1. GKEmiliano González
  2. DFGonzalo Asís
  3. DFMatías Cortave
  4. DFEnzo Silcan
  5. DFSantiago Chamorro26′
  6. DFJulián Vitale
  7. MFTobías Macies15′
  8. MFJulián Marchioni
  9. MFEnzo Martínez73′
  10. MFJeremías Bustos
  11. FWFacundo De La Vega
Came on (3)
  1. MFFranco Bustamante17′
  2. FWJoel Orlando75′
  3. MFJuan Fernández Pinto64′

Form

Atlético Güemes

  • 11.10away · Patronato de Parana0:2
  • 04.10Colegiales0:1
  • 26.09away · Quilmes0:2
  • 20.09CA Ferrocarril Midland0:2
  • 12.09away · Atlanta0:2

Almagro

  • 10.10Chacarita Juniors2:1
  • 04.10away · San Martín San Juan2:1
  • 27.09Nueva Chicago0:1
  • 19.09away · Temperley1:3
  • 12.09Deportivo Maipú2:2

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Almagro — Atlético Güemes2:0
  • 04.10.2025Almagro — Atlético Güemes0:1
  • 31.05.2025Atlético Güemes — Almagro1:1
  • 16.10.2023Atlético Güemes — Almagro1:0
  • 03.06.2023Almagro — Atlético Güemes1:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →