CONMEBOL Copa Sudamericana, playoff · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético-MG — Boca Juniors
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Boca Juniors are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Boca Juniors are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Boca Juniors are 107 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Atlético-MG: 4 defeats in a row; Boca Juniors: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG — Boca Juniors What is xG? | 1.1–1.2 | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 61% | |
| Boca Juniors not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG goals
- Boca Juniors goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Atlético-MG | Boca Juniors |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.23 | 0.31 |
| Shots | 15.4 | 13.9 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Possession, % | 52 | 61 |
Form
- 02.11away · Grêmio0:2
- 30.10Cruzeiro0:1
- 27.10away · Flamengo2:3
- 22.10away · Montevideo City Torque0:2
- 18.10Coritiba1:0
- 01.11River Plate1:0
- 25.10away · Independiente1:0
- 21.10away · Vasco da Gama3:1
- 17.10Talleres2:1
- 14.10Vasco da Gama0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →