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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nuevo Monumental

Atlético Rafaela — Quilmes

Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Atlético Rafaela41%
Draw33%
Quilmes26%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Rafaela to win (41%), came true.

Atlético Rafaela are slightly stronger: 41% against 26%, draw 33%.

2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Atlético Rafaela are 64 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Atlético Rafaela: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 3 meetings: Atlético Rafaela 2 wins, Quilmes 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético Rafaela — Quilmes What is xG?1.1–0.9
Atlético Rafaela not to lose74%
Quilmes not to lose59%
No draw67%
Both teams to score: yes42%
Both teams to score: no58%
Total over 2.536%
Total under 2.564%

Match events

  1. 2′Martiniano Moreno · penalty · Atlético Rafaela1:0
  2. 40′Joaquín Novillo · Quilmes
  3. 45′Agustín Ortega · Quilmes
  4. 52′Agustín Solveyra · Atlético Rafaela
  5. 58′Agustín Obando · Atlético Rafaela
  6. 64′Juan Aimale · Quilmes
  7. 69′Martiniano Moreno · Atlético Rafaela
  8. 70′Facundo Soloa · Atlético Rafaela
  9. 75′Nicolás Colazo · Quilmes
  10. 82′Ramiro Martínez · Quilmes
Substitutions (8)
  1. 54′Gabriel Vázquez ↔ Agustín Ortega · Quilmes
  2. 62′Leonardo Flores ↔ Lucas Albertengo · Atlético Rafaela
  3. 69′Juan Capurro ↔ Esteban Pepino · Atlético Rafaela
  4. 70′Roque Ramírez ↔ Agustín Obando · Atlético Rafaela
  5. 72′Nicolás Colazo ↔ Joaquín Novillo · Quilmes
  6. 72′Ramiro Martínez ↔ Juan Aimale · Quilmes
  7. 84′Mauro Fernández ↔ Facundo Yozwiak · Quilmes
  8. 91′Alexis Rodríguez ↔ Enzo Wuattier · Atlético Rafaela

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Atlético Rafaela

  1. GKMayco Bergia
  2. DFUlises Yegros
  3. DFAgustín Solveyra
  4. DFFernando Ponce
  5. DFEnzo Wuattier
  6. MFAgustín Obando70′
  7. MFNahuel Cainelli
  8. MFFacundo Soloa
  9. MFEsteban Pepino69′
  10. FWLucas Albertengo62′
  11. FWMartiniano Moreno
Came on (3)
  1. DFLeonardo Flores28′
  2. DFRoque Ramírez20′
  3. MFJuan Capurro21′

Quilmes

  1. GKGonzalo Marinelli
  2. DFJoaquín Novillo72′
  3. DFAgustín Bindella
  4. DFLucas Romeo
  5. DFAgustín Ortega54′
  6. DFSantino Rodríguez
  7. MFAxel Batista
  8. MFGonzalo Vega
  9. MFFacundo Yozwiak84′
  10. FWAarón Spetale
  11. FWJuan Aimale72′
Came on (4)
  1. MFNicolás Colazo18′
  2. MFRamiro Martínez18′
  3. MFMauro Fernández6′
  4. FWGabriel Vázquez36′

Form

Atlético Rafaela

  • 10.10away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:4
  • 04.10Atlanta2:3
  • 28.09away · Gimnasia y Tiro0:1
  • 19.09San Martín de Tucumán4:2
  • 13.09away · Gimnasia Jujuy1:2

Quilmes

  • 10.10Agropecuario0:1
  • 03.10away · Tristán Suárez0:0
  • 26.09Atlético Güemes2:0
  • 20.09away · Chacarita Juniors0:3
  • 12.09San Martín San Juan1:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Quilmes — Atlético Rafaela2:0
  • 30.07.2023Quilmes — Atlético Rafaela1:2
  • 27.03.2023Atlético Rafaela — Quilmes1:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →