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Copa Argentina, playoff · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena

Atlético Tucumán — Platense

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Atlético Tucumán41%
Draw27%
Platense33%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Tucumán to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.

Atlético Tucumán are slightly stronger: 41% against 33%, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Atlético Tucumán are 95 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Atlético Tucumán 2 wins, Platense 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético Tucumán — Platense What is xG?1.5–1.3
Atlético Tucumán not to lose67%
Platense not to lose59%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Atlético Tucumán
  • Atlético Tucumán goals
  • Platense goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 6′Lautaro Godoy · Atlético Tucumán
  2. 36′Renzo Tesuri · Atlético Tucumán1:0
  3. 50′Tomás Silva · Platense
  4. 58′Nicolás Retamar · Platense1:1
  5. 63′Renzo Tesuri · Atlético Tucumán
  6. 79′Leandro Díaz · Atlético Tucumán
  7. 81′Guido Mainero · Platense
  8. 91′Maximiliano Amarfil · Platense
  9. 121′Pedro Canelo · Atlético Tucumán
  10. 121′Agustín Lagos · Platense
  11. 121′Rodrigo Granillo · Atlético Tucumán
  12. 121′Franco Zapiola · Platense
  13. 121′Clever Ferreira · Atlético Tucumán
  14. 121′Bruno Sepúlveda · Platense
  15. 121′Lautaro Godoy · Atlético Tucumán
  16. 121′Ignacio Vázquez · Platense
  17. 121′Gabriel Compagnucci · missed penalty · Atlético Tucumán
  18. 121′Guido Mainero · Platense
Substitutions (10)
  1. 36′Julián Fernández ↔ Leonel Vega · Atlético Tucumán
  2. 61′Franco Zapiola ↔ Bautista Merlini · Platense
  3. 61′Agustín Lagos ↔ Juan Saborido · Platense
  4. 68′Ramiro Ruíz ↔ Renzo Tesuri · Atlético Tucumán
  5. 73′Guido Mainero ↔ Juan Gauto · Platense
  6. 87′Maximiliano Amarfil ↔ Martín Barrios · Platense
  7. 87′Bruno Sepúlveda ↔ Gonzalo Lencina · Platense
  8. 88′Rodrigo Granillo ↔ Leandro Díaz · Atlético Tucumán
  9. 88′Pedro Canelo ↔ Nicolás Laméndola · Atlético Tucumán
  10. 88′Gabriel Compagnucci ↔ Franco Nicola · Atlético Tucumán

Match statistics

Atlético TucumánPlatense
  • 33Possession, %67
  • 10Shots10
  • 1On target2
  • 2Big chances1
  • 4Corners5
  • 11Fouls6
  • 2Offsides1
  • 3Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Atlético Tucumán

  1. GKLuis Ingolotti6.3
  2. DFLeonel Di Plácido7.6
  3. DFLuciano Vallejo6.3
  4. DFJuan Infante7.6
  5. DFClever Ferreira6.9
  6. MFLeonel Vega36′6.0
  7. MFLautaro Godoy6.7
  8. MFFranco Nicola88′6.3
  9. FWRenzo Tesuri (C)68′6.6
  10. FWNicolás Laméndola88′6.8
  11. FWLeandro Díaz88′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. MFJulián Fernández54′7.0
  2. FWRamiro Ruíz22′6.0
  3. FWPedro Canelo2′
  4. FWRodrigo Granillo2′
  5. DFGabriel Compagnucci2′

Platense

  1. GKJuan Cozzani6.2
  2. DFIgnacio Vázquez (C)7.5
  3. DFVíctor Cuesta7.2
  4. DFTomás Silva8.0
  5. DFJuan Saborido61′6.6
  6. MFMartín Barrios87′6.8
  7. MFBautista Merlini61′6.3
  8. MFIván Gómez7.5
  9. FWNicolás Retamar7.8
  10. FWJuan Gauto73′7.4
  11. FWGonzalo Lencina87′6.3
Came on (5)
  1. DFAgustín Lagos29′5.9
  2. FWGuido Mainero17′6.0
  3. FWBruno Sepúlveda3′
  4. MFMaximiliano Amarfil3′
  5. MFFranco Zapiola29′6.5

Form

Atlético Tucumán

  • 24.10away · Tigre1:0
  • 18.10Rosario Central2:3
  • 10.10away · Gimnasia La Plata1:1
  • 03.10Barracas Central2:3
  • 21.09away · Aldosivi0:1

Platense

  • 24.10away · Gimnasia Mendoza2:1
  • 17.10Lanús0:1
  • 11.10Argentinos Juniors1:1
  • 06.10away · Vélez Sarsfield2:2
  • 02.10Estudiantes1:0

Head to head

  • 05.10.2025Atlético Tucumán — Platense2:0
  • 29.03.2025Platense — Atlético Tucumán2:1
  • 28.05.2024Atlético Tucumán — Platense1:1
  • 12.02.2023Platense — Atlético Tucumán1:1
  • 06.10.2022Atlético Tucumán — Platense2:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Next matches

  • PlatenseCentral Córdoba3 November · Liga Profesional
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
  • Atlético TucumánArgentinos Juniors3 November · Liga Profesional
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →