Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva
Avaí — Londrina
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Avaí to win (47%), came true.
Avaí are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Avaí are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avaí — Londrina What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| Avaí not to lose | 75% | |
| Londrina not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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- Londrina goals
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Form
- 03.10Ceará0:1
- 27.09away · Criciúma0:3
- 20.09away · Goiás1:2
- 15.09Vila Nova1:1
- 10.09away · Fortaleza0:1
- 03.10Criciúma0:2
- 26.09away · Vila Nova0:2
- 21.09Fortaleza1:2
- 16.09Ponte Preta6:0
- 11.09away · São Bernardo2:1
Head to head
- 16.06.2026Londrina — Avaí3:2
- 16.10.2023Londrina — Avaí1:1
- 24.06.2023Avaí — Londrina0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
| 17, Relegation | Avaí | 33 | 10 | -10 | 36 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 33 | 7 | -7 | 29 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
Next matches
- CuiabáAvaí12 October · Brasileirao Serie B5726161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.1.9
- Athletic Club MGLondrina14 October · Brasileirao Serie B4827241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5228211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 3028422The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.3
- 4726271The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 383230XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →