Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio Raimundo Sampaio
América-MG — Fortaleza
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fortaleza to win (42%), came true.
Fortaleza are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fortaleza are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- América-MG: 4 defeats in a row; Fortaleza: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: América-MG 2 wins, Fortaleza 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: América-MG — Fortaleza What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| América-MG not to lose | 58% | |
| Fortaleza not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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Form
- 03.10away · Atlético-GO0:2
- 29.09Juventude0:1
- 19.09away · Vila Nova0:1
- 15.09São Bernardo0:2
- 10.09Náutico2:1
Head to head
- 17.06.2026Fortaleza — América-MG0:3
- 09.10.2023Fortaleza — América-MG3:2
- 01.09.2023Fortaleza — América-MG2:1
- 25.08.2023América-MG — Fortaleza1:3
- 21.05.2023América-MG — Fortaleza2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | +6 | 56 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 33 | 7 | -7 | 29 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
| 20, Relegation | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | -55 | 13 |
Next matches
- FortalezaCRB12 October · Brasileirao Serie B4528261The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- CriciúmaAmérica-MG13 October · Brasileirao Serie B6721111The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5228211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4728251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.3
- 4726271The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 383230XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →