Russian Cup, round 5 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Baltika — Zenit St. Petersburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Zenit St. Petersburg are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Zenit St. Petersburg are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Zenit St. Petersburg: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Baltika 0 wins, Zenit St. Petersburg 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Baltika — Zenit St. Petersburg What is xG? | 1.0–1.9 | |
| Baltika not to lose | 41% | |
| Zenit St. Petersburg not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Baltika
- Baltika goals
- Zenit St. Petersburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:0
- 11.10away · FK Akhmat0:0
- 16.09Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 12.09away · Fakel2:2
- 06.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 10.10away · FC Krasnodar3:2
- 16.09away · Baltika3:2
- 12.09Lokomotiv Moscow2:1
- 05.09CSKA Moscow1:2
- 02.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:0
Head to head
- 16.09.2026Baltika — Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 05.08.2026Zenit St. Petersburg — Baltika1:0
- 03.03.2026Baltika — Zenit St. Petersburg0:1
- 27.02.2026Zenit St. Petersburg — Baltika1:0
- 14.09.2025Baltika — Zenit St. Petersburg0:0
Russian Cup on the same day
- Krylya Sovetov SamaraDynamo Makhachkalapreliminary4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- CSKA MoscowLokomotiv Moscowpreliminary4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →