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Copa Argentina, playoff · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)

Banfield — Boca Juniors

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Model prediction for 15 November

Banfield12%
Draw19%
Boca Juniors68%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Boca Juniors are clear favourites: 68% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Boca Juniors are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
  • Boca Juniors are 222 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Boca Juniors: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Banfield 2 wins, Boca Juniors 3.
  • Days of rest before the match: Banfield 12, Boca Juniors 14.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Banfield — Boca Juniors What is xG?0.8–2.2
Banfield not to lose32%
Boca Juniors not to lose88%
No draw81%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Banfield
  • Banfield goals
  • Boca Juniors goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBanfieldBoca Juniors
Goals scored per match1.21.8
Goals conceded per match1.70.8
xG per match0.881.11
Opponents’ xG1.640.31
Shots13.413.9
On target3.54.4
Corners4.25.5
Cards2.12.5
Possession, %4261

Averages per match: Banfield — the last 10, Boca Juniors — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Banfield

  • 03.11away · Independiente Rivadavia1:3
  • 24.10Lanús1:1
  • 17.10Argentinos Juniors0:1
  • 11.10away · Tigre2:1
  • 06.10Rosario Central1:1

Boca Juniors

  • 01.11River Plate1:0
  • 25.10away · Independiente1:0
  • 21.10away · Vasco da Gama3:1
  • 17.10Talleres2:1
  • 14.10Vasco da Gama0:1

Head to head

  • 25.08.2025Boca Juniors — Banfield2:0
  • 15.02.2025Banfield — Boca Juniors0:1
  • 01.08.2024Boca Juniors — Banfield3:0
  • 13.03.2023Banfield — Boca Juniors1:0
  • 02.07.2022Boca Juniors — Banfield0:3

Full record: 7 meetings →

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →