Turkish Super Lig, round 12 · Monday, 23 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

Başakşehir — Çorum FK

Model prediction for 23 November

Başakşehir49%

Draw25%

Çorum FK26%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Başakşehir are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Başakşehir are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Başakşehir are 110 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Başakşehir — No. 10, 14 pts; Çorum FK — No. 7, 16 pts. A gap of 2 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Başakşehir — Çorum FK What is xG?		1.8–1.2
Başakşehir not to lose		74%
Çorum FK not to lose		51%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Başakşehir
Başakşehir goals
Çorum FK goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Başakşehir	Çorum FK
Goals scored per match	1.7	2.1
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.6
xG per match	1.75	1.28
Opponents’ xG	1.57	1.37
Shots	13.2	12.1
On target	4.6	4.9
Corners	4.5	3.7
Cards	2.2	2.0
Possession, %	51	53

Averages per match: Başakşehir — the last 10, Çorum FK — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Başakşehir

01.11Samsunspor5:2
26.10away · Beşiktaş0:2
18.10Gaziantep FK2:1
11.10away · Konyaspor0:0
19.09Gençlerbirliği4:0

Çorum FK

31.10away · Erzurumspor FK3:1
25.10away · Göztepe0:2
16.10Rizespor2:1
11.10away · Gaziantep FK3:0
19.09Alanyaspor1:2

Head to head

04.02.2025Başakşehir — Çorum FK4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6	Fenerbahçe	10	5	1	4	24–10	+14	16
7	Çorum FK	10	5	1	4	21–16	+5	16
8	Kocaelispor	10	5	1	4	11–9	+2	16
9	Göztepe	10	4	3	3	21–17	+4	15
10	Başakşehir	10	4	2	4	17–16	+1	14
11	Erzurumspor FK	10	4	2	4	9–15	-6	14

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →