Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Bogny — Thionville Lusitanos
Model prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Thionville Lusitanos to win (47%), came true.
Thionville Lusitanos are slightly stronger: 47% against 27%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Thionville Lusitanos are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bogny — Thionville Lusitanos What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Bogny not to lose | 53% | |
| Thionville Lusitanos not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
- 29.11Lusitanos St Maur0:3
- 16.11away · St Brice1:1
- 26.10away · ES Villerupt3:1
- 26.10away · Thaon0:4
- 29.10ES Villerupt0:0
- 15.11away · Racing Besançon0:4
- 26.10away · Uckange1:0
- 22.12Valenciennes2:2
- 30.11away · Aigles d'Or de Mana2:0
- 16.11away · CA Boulay3:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →