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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

CA San Miguel — Ciudad de Bolívar

Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
CA San Miguel42%
Draw32%
Ciudad de Bolívar27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, CA San Miguel to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.

CA San Miguel are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 32%.

2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • CA San Miguel: winless in 5; Ciudad de Bolívar: 3 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CA San Miguel — Ciudad de Bolívar What is xG?1.1–0.9
CA San Miguel not to lose73%
Ciudad de Bolívar not to lose58%
No draw68%
Both teams to score: yes42%
Both teams to score: no58%
Total over 2.536%
Total under 2.564%

Match events

  1. 2′Maximiliano Gutiérrez · Ciudad de Bolívar0:1
  2. 4′Federico Peralta · Ciudad de Bolívar
  3. 37′Arnaldo González · Ciudad de Bolívar
  4. 48′Guillermo Sánchez · Ciudad de Bolívar0:2
  5. 62′Damián Adín · CA San Miguel
  6. 63′Arnaldo González · Ciudad de Bolívar
  7. 88′Franco Aguirre · CA San Miguel1:2
Substitutions (8)
  1. 46′Tomás Jérez ↔ Lucas Brochero · CA San Miguel
  2. 57′Lucas Delgado ↔ Jorge Ferrero · CA San Miguel
  3. 57′Gustavo Fernández ↔ Bruno Nasta · CA San Miguel
  4. 68′Máximo Osés ↔ Damián Adín · CA San Miguel
  5. 70′Khalil Caraballo ↔ Guillermo Sánchez · Ciudad de Bolívar
  6. 70′Tomás Guiacobini ↔ Maximiliano Gutiérrez · Ciudad de Bolívar
  7. 73′Leandro Desábato ↔ Mateo Serra · CA San Miguel
  8. 82′Brian Quintana ↔ Facundo Mucignat · Ciudad de Bolívar

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

CA San Miguel

  1. GKMateo Reynoso Reynoso
  2. DFDamián Adín68′
  3. DFFacundo Cardozo
  4. DFAlexis Cruz
  5. DFFranco Aguirre
  6. MFMateo Serra73′
  7. MFLucas Brochero46′
  8. MFIván Ramírez
  9. MFJorge Ferrero57′
  10. FWBruno Nasta57′
  11. FWTomás Díaz
Came on (5)
  1. FWGustavo Fernández33′
  2. FWMáximo Osés22′
  3. MFLeandro Desábato17′
  4. FWLucas Delgado33′
  5. FWTomás Jérez44′

Ciudad de Bolívar

  1. GKAgustín Rufinetti
  2. DFAxel Carrión
  3. DFAgustín Paredes
  4. DFFederico Peralta
  5. DFElias Martinez
  6. MFNahuel Yeri
  7. MFArnaldo González
  8. MFAlex Díaz
  9. FWGuillermo Sánchez70′
  10. FWFacundo Mucignat82′
  11. FWMaximiliano Gutiérrez70′
Came on (3)
  1. MFTomás Guiacobini20′
  2. MFBrian Quintana8′
  3. FWKhalil Caraballo20′

Form

CA San Miguel

  • 11.10away · Almirante Brown1:1
  • 03.10Club Atlético Mitre0:2
  • 26.09away · Club Atlético Estudiantes1:2
  • 19.09All Boys1:1
  • 13.09away · Los Andes1:1

Ciudad de Bolívar

  • 12.10San Telmo1:0
  • 03.10away · Acassuso1:0
  • 26.09CA Chaco For Ever2:1
  • 19.09away · Ferro Carril Oeste0:1
  • 12.09Central Norte0:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Ciudad de Bolívar — CA San Miguel1:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →