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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)

Central Español — Albion

Model prediction and result

1:3Came true
Central Español31%
Draw29%
Albion40%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Albion to win (40%), came true.

Albion are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Albion higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • Central Español: 5 defeats in a row; Albion: 3 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Central Español — Albion What is xG?1.1–1.3
Central Español not to lose60%
Albion not to lose69%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

Match events

  1. 6′Carlos Airala · Albion0:1
  2. 22′Tobías Figueroa · Albion
  3. 30′Lucas Pino · Central Español
  4. 65′Francisco Couture · Albion
  5. 76′Tobías Figueroa · Albion0:2
  6. 92′Tobías Figueroa · Albion0:3
  7. 93′Santiago Sequeira · Central Español1:3
Substitutions (8)
  1. 65′Baltasar Barcia ↔ Hernán Toledo · Albion
  2. 65′Santiago Costa ↔ Francisco Ginella · Albion
  3. 69′Raul Tarragona ↔ Isaac Mendez · Central Español
  4. 79′Francisco Montoro ↔ Facundo Sosa · Central Español
  5. 82′Ignacio Neira ↔ Federico Puente · Albion
  6. 82′Lucas Rodríguez ↔ Carlos Airala · Albion
  7. 88′Franco Munoz ↔ Mariano Aguilera · Central Español
  8. 88′Santiago Sequeira ↔ Alejandro Villoldo · Central Español

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Central Español

  1. GKFederico Pintado
  2. DFNacho Rodríguez
  3. DFLuciano Fernandez
  4. DFAlejandro Villoldo88′
  5. DFJuan Ignacio Dupont
  6. MFGuillermo Gandolfo
  7. MFLucas Pino
  8. MFIsaac Mendez69′
  9. FWFacundo Sosa79′
  10. FWMariano Aguilera88′
  11. FWFernando Camarda
Came on (4)
  1. FWFrancisco Montoro11′
  2. FWSantiago Sequeira2′
  3. MFFranco Munoz2′
  4. FWRaul Tarragona21′

Albion

  1. GKSebastian Jaume
  2. DFMatías de los Santos
  3. DFJosé Álvarez
  4. DFFrancisco Couture
  5. DFPablo Lacoste
  6. DFFederico Puente82′
  7. MFTomás Moschión
  8. MFFrancisco Ginella65′
  9. FWHernán Toledo65′
  10. FWTobías Figueroa
  11. FWCarlos Airala82′
Came on (4)
  1. MFIgnacio Neira8′
  2. MFBaltasar Barcia25′
  3. MFSantiago Costa25′
  4. MFLucas Rodríguez8′

Form

Central Español

  • 18.10away · Danubio0:1
  • 12.10Nacional (URU)0:1
  • 04.10away · Deportivo Maldonado0:3
  • 27.09Liverpool FC1:2
  • 22.09Montevideo City Torque1:4

Albion

  • 18.10Montevideo City Torque2:1
  • 11.10away · Cerro Largo1:0
  • 03.10Defensor Sporting3:2
  • 29.09away · Montevideo Wanderers1:2
  • 20.09Juventud de las Piedras1:3

Head to head

  • 18.04.2026Albion — Central Español6:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →