Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno La Nueva Olla
Cerro Porteño — Sportivo Ameliano
Model prediction and result
2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Cerro Porteño to win (55%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Cerro Porteño are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cerro Porteño are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Cerro Porteño are 152 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Sportivo Ameliano: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Cerro Porteño 3 wins, Sportivo Ameliano 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerro Porteño — Sportivo Ameliano What is xG? | 1.5–0.8 | |
| Cerro Porteño not to lose | 82% | |
| Sportivo Ameliano not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
Match events
- 40′Jorge Morel · Cerro Porteño1:0
- 47′Jonathan Benítez · Sportivo Ameliano
- 51′Raúl Cabral · Sportivo Ameliano
- 53′Jorge Morel · penalty · Cerro Porteño2:0
- 59′Cristhian Ocampos · penalty · Sportivo Ameliano2:1
- 76′Lucas Quintana · Cerro Porteño
- 85′Luis Ayala · Sportivo Ameliano2:2
- 95′Luca Falabella · Sportivo Ameliano
Substitutions (10)
- 28′Blás Riveros ↔ Guillermo Benítez · Cerro Porteño
- 46′Fabián Franco ↔ Miguel Benítez · Sportivo Ameliano
- 59′Iván Ramírez ↔ Fabricio Domínguez · Cerro Porteño
- 65′Walter Rodríguez ↔ Jonathan Benítez · Sportivo Ameliano
- 69′Ignacio Aliseda ↔ Derlis Rodríguez · Cerro Porteño
- 69′Sergio Araújo ↔ Mateo Klimowicz · Cerro Porteño
- 69′Ariel Gamarra ↔ Carlos Chena · Cerro Porteño
- 69′Richard Torales ↔ Raúl Cabral · Sportivo Ameliano
- 69′Luis Ayala ↔ Luis Ortiz · Sportivo Ameliano
- 81′Marcelo Camargo ↔ Estivel Moreira · Sportivo Ameliano
Match statistics
Cerro PorteñoSportivo Ameliano
- 44Possession, %56
- 12Shots12
- 7On target6
- 4Big chances2
- 2Corners1
- 10Fouls12
- 3Offsides4
- 0Yellow cards3
- 1Red cards0
Lineups
Cerro Porteño
- GKÁngel Martínez6.5
- DFFabricio Domínguez59′6.5
- DFGuillermo Benítez28′5.8
- DFAlexis Cañete6.4
- DFLucas Quintana (C)76′6.2
- MFJorge Morel9.1
- MFCarlos Chena69′7.2
- MFCesar Bobadilla7.0
- FWMateo Klimowicz69′6.9
- FWPablo Vegetti7.8
- FWDerlis Rodríguez69′6.8
Came on (5)
- MFAriel Gamarra21′6.5
- DFBlás Riveros62′6.7
- DFIván Ramírez31′7.0
- MFIgnacio Aliseda21′6.1
- FWSergio Araújo21′6.2
Sportivo Ameliano
- GKÁngel Sánchez6.9
- DFJulio González (C)6.8
- DFMiguel Benítez45′7.2
- DFRonald Peralta7.0
- DFLuca Falabella7.3
- MFRaúl Cabral69′6.3
- MFEstivel Moreira81′7.0
- MFJonathan Benítez65′6.8
- FWFredy Vera6.5
- FWCristhian Ocampos8.4
- FWLuis Ortiz69′6.6
Came on (5)
- MFWalter Rodríguez25′6.7
- FWRichard Torales21′6.4
- DFFabián Franco45′6.6
- MFLuis Ayala21′7.2
- MFMarcelo Camargo9′
Form
- 11.10away · Luqueño3:0
- 06.102 de Mayo0:2
- 27.09away · Sportivo Trinidense1:2
- 20.09Rubio Ñú1:0
- 12.09away · Guaraní1:1
- 12.10away · 2 de Mayo0:1
- 06.10Rubio Ñú1:2
- 26.09away · Nacional (PAR)1:1
- 19.09away · Libertad1:1
- 11.09Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
Head to head
- 08.08.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Cerro Porteño1:0
- 25.04.2026Cerro Porteño — Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 26.02.2026Sportivo Ameliano — Cerro Porteño0:1
- 21.09.2025Cerro Porteño — Sportivo Ameliano2:0
- 12.07.2025Sportivo Ameliano — Cerro Porteño0:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →