Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Cestas — Le Bouscat
Model prediction and result
5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cestas to win (40%), came true.
Evenly matched: Cestas 40%, Le Bouscat 33%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Cestas are 81 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cestas — Le Bouscat What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Cestas not to lose | 67% | |
| Le Bouscat not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →