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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Chacarita Juniors — Deportivo Maipú

Model prediction and result

1:0Missed
Chacarita Juniors39%
Draw31%
Deportivo Maipú30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.

Chacarita Juniors are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Deportivo Maipú: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Chacarita Juniors 4 wins, Deportivo Maipú 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chacarita Juniors — Deportivo Maipú What is xG?1.1–1.0
Chacarita Juniors not to lose70%
Deportivo Maipú not to lose61%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

Match events

  1. 24′Alexis Domínguez · Chacarita Juniors1:0
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Brian Orosco ↔ Tomás Silva · Deportivo Maipú
  2. 59′Milton Leyendeker ↔ Lucas Alfonzo · Chacarita Juniors
  3. 69′Mario Sanabria ↔ Cristian Guanca · Chacarita Juniors
  4. 69′Mauricio Cuero ↔ Maximiliano Meléndez · Chacarita Juniors
  5. 71′Mateo Ortale ↔ Nicolás Fernández · Deportivo Maipú
  6. 71′Matías Viguet ↔ Mirko Bonfigli · Deportivo Maipú
  7. 76′Tomás Migliore ↔ Francisco Facello · Chacarita Juniors
  8. 77′Luciano Perdomo ↔ Álvaro Cuello · Chacarita Juniors
  9. 81′Lisandro Cabrera ↔ Juan Gobetto · Deportivo Maipú

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Chacarita Juniors

  1. GKFederico Losas
  2. DFFrancisco Facello76′
  3. DFNicolás Chávez
  4. DFSantiago Acosta
  5. DFNicolás Pantaleone
  6. MFÁlvaro Cuello77′
  7. MFCristian Guanca69′
  8. MFMaximiliano Meléndez69′
  9. MFTomás Pérez
  10. FWAlexis Domínguez
  11. FWLucas Alfonzo59′
Came on (5)
  1. FWMario Sanabria21′
  2. FWMauricio Cuero21′
  3. DFMilton Leyendeker31′
  4. MFLuciano Perdomo13′
  5. DFTomás Migliore14′

Deportivo Maipú

  1. GKNahuel Galardi
  2. DFLucas Faggioli
  3. DFNicolás Fernández71′
  4. DFArón Agüero
  5. DFSantiago Paulini
  6. MFEnzo Pérez
  7. MFMirko Bonfigli71′
  8. MFJuan Gobetto81′
  9. FWJuan Giacone
  10. FWTomás Silva46′
  11. FWFranco Saccone
Came on (4)
  1. FWLisandro Cabrera9′
  2. DFMateo Ortale19′
  3. MFBrian Orosco44′
  4. FWMatías Viguet19′

Form

Chacarita Juniors

  • 10.10away · Almagro1:2
  • 04.10Patronato de Parana1:0
  • 27.09away · Colegiales1:2
  • 20.09Quilmes3:0
  • 13.09away · CA Ferrocarril Midland0:1

Deportivo Maipú

  • 11.10San Martín San Juan1:1
  • 05.10away · Nueva Chicago1:0
  • 27.09Temperley1:0
  • 20.09Gimnasia Jujuy1:1
  • 12.09away · Almagro2:2

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Deportivo Maipú — Chacarita Juniors3:2
  • 23.06.2024Deportivo Maipú — Chacarita Juniors0:2
  • 03.02.2024Chacarita Juniors — Deportivo Maipú2:0
  • 02.07.2023Chacarita Juniors — Deportivo Maipú2:1
  • 27.02.2023Deportivo Maipú — Chacarita Juniors0:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →