Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Chapecoense — Mirassol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Mirassol are clear favourites: 46% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mirassol are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Mirassol are 122 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Chapecoense — No. 20, 18 pts; Mirassol — No. 15, 33 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Chapecoense: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Chapecoense 0 wins, Mirassol 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chapecoense — Mirassol What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| Chapecoense not to lose | 54% | |
| Mirassol not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 13.10Athletico Paranaense1:4
- 08.10away · Vitória0:4
- 19.09away · Atlético-MG1:1
- 12.09Internacional1:2
- 07.09away · Corinthians2:1
- 12.10away · Bahia0:1
- 08.10away · RB Bragantino1:1
- 19.09Botafogo2:0
- 13.09Vitória2:2
- 06.09away · Coritiba2:1
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Mirassol — Chapecoense1:1
- 25.11.2024Mirassol — Chapecoense1:0
- 06.08.2024Chapecoense — Mirassol0:1
- 29.07.2023Chapecoense — Mirassol0:1
- 15.04.2023Mirassol — Chapecoense1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
| 20, Relegation | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | -31 | 18 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- InternacionalCoritibapreliminary6820121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →