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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Colón — Almirante Brown

Model prediction and result

2:2Missed
Colón53%
Draw29%
Almirante Brown18%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Colón to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.

Colón are clear favourites: 53% against 18% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 37%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Colón are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Colón are 113 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Colón: unbeaten in 4; Almirante Brown: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Colón 2 wins, Almirante Brown 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Colón — Almirante Brown What is xG?1.3–0.7
Colón not to lose82%
Almirante Brown not to lose47%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes37%
Both teams to score: no63%
Total over 2.535%
Total under 2.565%

Match events

  1. 10′Mauro Peinipil · Colón
  2. 17′Gustavo Cabral · Almirante Brown
  3. 42′Matías Muñoz · Colón
  4. 66′Federico Rasmussen · Colón1:0
  5. 68′Gerardo Alegre · Almirante Brown
  6. 77′Leandro Garate · Colón
  7. 77′Enzo Cardozo · Almirante Brown
  8. 79′Pedro Velurtas · Almirante Brown1:1
  9. 87′Ignacio Lago · Colón2:1
  10. 91′Javier Martínez · Almirante Brown2:2
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Conrado Ibarra ↔ Darío Sarmiento · Colón
  2. 63′Javier Martínez ↔ Milton Zanotti · Almirante Brown
  3. 63′Leandro Garate ↔ Julián Marcioni · Colón
  4. 63′Zahir Ibarra ↔ Sebastián Olmedo · Colón
  5. 72′Santiago Villalba ↔ Mariano Santiago · Almirante Brown
  6. 72′Gastón Moreyra ↔ Marcos Abreliano · Almirante Brown
  7. 83′Leonardo Jara ↔ Luciano Pascual · Almirante Brown
  8. 83′Máximo Levi ↔ Tomás Villoldo · Almirante Brown
  9. 84′Jeronimo Buosi ↔ Leandro Garate · Colón
  10. 89′Pier Barrios ↔ Agustín Toledo · Colón

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Colón

  1. GKTomás Giménez
  2. DFFederico Rasmussen
  3. DFMauro Peinipil
  4. DFNicolás Thaller
  5. DFSebastián Olmedo63′
  6. MFDarío Sarmiento46′
  7. MFAgustín Toledo89′
  8. MFMatías Muñoz
  9. FWJulián Marcioni63′
  10. FWIgnacio Lago
  11. FWAlan Bonansea
Came on (5)
  1. FWLeandro Garate21′
  2. DFPier Barrios1′
  3. DFConrado Ibarra44′
  4. DFZahir Ibarra27′
  5. FWJeronimo Buosi6′

Almirante Brown

  1. GKBruno Galván
  2. DFPedro Velurtas
  3. DFGustavo Cabral
  4. DFGerardo Alegre
  5. DFEnzo Cardozo
  6. MFLuciano Pascual83′
  7. MFMariano Santiago72′
  8. MFTomás Villoldo83′
  9. MFMarcos Abreliano72′
  10. MFSantiago Gauna
  11. FWMilton Zanotti63′
Came on (5)
  1. MFLeonardo Jara7′
  2. FWGastón Moreyra18′
  3. FWSantiago Villalba18′
  4. FWJavier Martínez27′
  5. DFMáximo Levi7′

Form

Colón

  • 11.10away · Club Atlético Mitre0:0
  • 03.10Club Atlético Estudiantes1:0
  • 26.09away · All Boys0:0
  • 20.09Los Andes3:0
  • 14.09away · Godoy Cruz0:2

Almirante Brown

  • 11.10CA San Miguel1:1
  • 04.10away · San Telmo2:3
  • 26.09Acassuso0:1
  • 20.09away · CA Chaco For Ever0:1
  • 13.09Ferro Carril Oeste0:0

Head to head

  • 30.05.2026Almirante Brown — Colón1:1
  • 13.07.2025Colón — Almirante Brown1:0
  • 10.03.2025Almirante Brown — Colón2:0
  • 07.07.2024Almirante Brown — Colón0:0
  • 19.02.2024Colón — Almirante Brown2:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →