Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Crest Aouste — Olympique de Valence
Model prediction and result
2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Crest Aouste to win (40%), came true.
Evenly matched: Crest Aouste 40%, Olympique de Valence 34%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Crest Aouste are 77 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Crest Aouste — Olympique de Valence What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Crest Aouste not to lose | 66% | |
| Olympique de Valence not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
- 25.10away · Chamalières1:1
- 30.11away · Bourgoin Jallieu0:3
- 17.11AC Arles1:0
- 26.10L'Etrat-la-Tour4:3
- 08.12Paris FC0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →