Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Cruzeiro — Bahia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cruzeiro are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruzeiro are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Cruzeiro are 96 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Cruzeiro — No. 6, 48 pts; Bahia — No. 5, 49 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Cruzeiro 3 wins, Bahia 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cruzeiro — Bahia What is xG? | 1.8–1.2 | |
| Cruzeiro not to lose | 77% | |
| Bahia not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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Form
- 13.10away · RB Bragantino2:4
- 08.10São Paulo2:0
- 20.09away · Vitória3:1
- 13.09away · Santos1:2
- 06.09Athletico Paranaense3:1
- 12.10Mirassol1:0
- 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Bahia — Cruzeiro1:2
- 16.09.2025Bahia — Cruzeiro1:2
- 18.04.2025Cruzeiro — Bahia3:0
- 19.10.2024Cruzeiro — Bahia1:1
- 23.06.2024Bahia — Cruzeiro4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- PalmeirasRemopreliminary801551The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →