K League 1 (South Korea), round 32 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gwangju FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Daejeon Hana Citizen are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Daejeon Hana Citizen are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Daejeon Hana Citizen — No. 6, 43 pts; Gwangju FC — No. 12, 18 pts. A gap of 25 pts.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Daejeon Hana Citizen 2 wins, Gwangju FC 1, 2 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Daejeon Hana Citizen 9, Gwangju FC 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gwangju FC What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen not to lose | 84% | |
| Gwangju FC not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Daejeon Hana Citizen
- Daejeon Hana Citizen goals
- Gwangju FC goals
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Form
- 09.10Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:1
- 20.09away · Incheon United1:1
- 12.09Pohang Steelers2:2
- 09.09FC Anyang3:2
- 05.09away · Bucheon FC 19955:0
- 11.10Ulsan HD FC4:3
- 20.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:2
- 13.09FC Anyang1:1
- 09.09Jeju SK0:1
- 06.09away · Gimcheon Sangmu2:2
Head to head
- 02.08.2026Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gwangju FC2:0
- 02.05.2026Gwangju FC — Daejeon Hana Citizen0:5
- 17.08.2025Gwangju FC — Daejeon Hana Citizen2:0
- 22.06.2025Gwangju FC — Daejeon Hana Citizen2:2
- 29.03.2025Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gwangju FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Championship round | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 31 | 11 | +9 | 44 |
| 6, Championship round | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 31 | 11 | +10 | 43 |
| 7, Relegation round | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | +6 | 42 |
| 11, Relegation round | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 12, Relegation play-off | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | -41 | 18 |
K League 1 on the same day
- 5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 5925161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.8
- 403229XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
- 4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →