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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)

Defensor Sporting — Racing

Model prediction and result

3:3Came true
Defensor Sporting35%
Draw31%
Racing34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), came true.

Evenly matched: Defensor Sporting 35%, Racing 34%, draw 31%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Racing are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Racing are 54 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Defensor Sporting: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Defensor Sporting 2 wins, Racing 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Defensor Sporting — Racing What is xG?1.1–1.1
Defensor Sporting not to lose66%
Racing not to lose65%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

Match events

  1. 7′Guillermo Cotugno · Racing0:1
  2. 23′Lautaro Navarro · penalty · Defensor Sporting1:1
  3. 25′Edgar Elizalde · Defensor Sporting
  4. 40′Alan Torterolo · Defensor Sporting2:1
  5. 50′Agustín De la Cuesta · Racing
  6. 51′Lautaro Navarro · Defensor Sporting3:1
  7. 59′Lorenzo Cafaro · Defensor Sporting
  8. 60′Edgar Elizalde · Defensor Sporting
  9. 62′Sebastián da Silva · penalty · Racing3:2
  10. 73′Guillermo De Los Santos · Defensor Sporting
  11. 79′Sebastián da Silva · Racing
  12. 85′Juan Bosca · Racing3:3
Substitutions (8)
  1. 57′Franco Suárez ↔ Facundo González · Racing
  2. 57′Álex Vázquez ↔ Yury Oyarzo · Racing
  3. 63′Erico Cuello ↔ Lorenzo Cafaro · Defensor Sporting
  4. 63′Axel Frugone ↔ Geanfranco Rodríguez · Defensor Sporting
  5. 72′Ramiro Brazionis ↔ Agustín De la Cuesta · Racing
  6. 72′Brian Montenegro ↔ Alan Torterolo · Defensor Sporting
  7. 72′Bruno Pereira ↔ Nicolás Wunsch · Defensor Sporting
  8. 87′Diego Abella ↔ Germán Barrios · Defensor Sporting

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Defensor Sporting

  1. GKKevin Dawson
  2. DFEdgar Elizalde
  3. DFGuillermo De Los Santos
  4. DFLucas Agazzi
  5. DFGeanfranco Rodríguez63′
  6. DFFrancisco Sorondo
  7. MFGermán Barrios87′
  8. MFNicolás Wunsch72′
  9. MFLorenzo Cafaro63′
  10. FWAlan Torterolo72′
  11. FWLautaro Navarro
Came on (5)
  1. FWBrian Montenegro18′
  2. DFAxel Frugone27′
  3. MFErico Cuello27′
  4. MFDiego Abella3′
  5. MFBruno Pereira18′

Racing

  1. GKFederico Varese
  2. DFGuillermo Cotugno
  3. DFFelipe Álvarez
  4. DFFacundo González57′
  5. DFMartín Ferreira
  6. MFAgustín De la Cuesta72′
  7. MFYury Oyarzo57′
  8. MFJuan Bosca
  9. FWEsteban da Silva
  10. FWTomás Habib
  11. FWSebastián da Silva
Came on (3)
  1. DFRamiro Brazionis18′
  2. MFÁlex Vázquez33′
  3. MFFranco Suárez33′

Form

Defensor Sporting

  • 17.10away · Boston River0:1
  • 10.10Cerro2:3
  • 03.10away · Albion2:3
  • 28.09Danubio1:0
  • 20.09away · Nacional (URU)2:3

Racing

  • 17.10Montevideo Wanderers3:0
  • 11.10away · Juventud de las Piedras0:2
  • 05.10Club Atletico Peñarol0:1
  • 26.09away · Club Atlético Progreso1:2
  • 21.09away · Liverpool FC0:0

Head to head

  • 30.05.2026Racing — Defensor Sporting0:0
  • 18.04.2026Racing — Defensor Sporting1:1
  • 17.08.2025Racing — Defensor Sporting0:1
  • 16.02.2025Defensor Sporting — Racing2:0
  • 14.09.2024Defensor Sporting — Racing1:2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →