PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Primera Nacional, round 34 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Deportivo Morón — Club Atlético Mitre

Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Deportivo Morón68%
Draw21%
Club Atlético Mitre12%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Deportivo Morón to win (68%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 68% fails in about 32 matches out of 100 on average.

Deportivo Morón are clear favourites: 68% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Deportivo Morón are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportivo Morón are 224 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Morón 2 wins, Club Atlético Mitre 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportivo Morón — Club Atlético Mitre What is xG?1.9–0.7
Deportivo Morón not to lose88%
Club Atlético Mitre not to lose32%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

Match events

  1. 34′Favio Cabral · Club Atlético Mitre0:1
  2. 70′Gonzalo Berterame · Deportivo Morón
  3. 93′Felipe Gorla · Club Atlético Mitre0:2
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Juan Esquivel ↔ Emilio Lazza · Deportivo Morón
  2. 64′Joaquín Zappacosta ↔ Franco Toloza · Deportivo Morón
  3. 64′Emanuel Iñiguez ↔ Elías Contreras · Deportivo Morón
  4. 71′Valentino Huertas ↔ Mauro Burruchaga · Deportivo Morón
  5. 76′Matías Benítez ↔ Gonzalo Berterame · Deportivo Morón
  6. 76′Santiago Rosales ↔ Favio Cabral · Club Atlético Mitre
  7. 76′Gianfranco Lillo ↔ Oscar Garrido · Club Atlético Mitre
  8. 83′Felipe Gorla ↔ Marcos Machado · Club Atlético Mitre
  9. 83′Luciano Federico Correa ↔ Martín Vázquez · Club Atlético Mitre

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportivo Morón

  1. GKJulio Salvá
  2. DFLeonel Cardozo
  3. DFBraian Salvareschi
  4. DFElías Contreras64′
  5. DFJoaquín Livera
  6. DFEmilio Lazza46′
  7. MFMauro Burruchaga71′
  8. MFSantiago Kubiszyn
  9. FWFranco Toloza64′
  10. FWMateo Levato
  11. FWGonzalo Berterame76′
Came on (5)
  1. DFEmanuel Iñiguez26′
  2. MFMatías Benítez14′
  3. FWJuan Esquivel44′
  4. MFValentino Huertas19′
  5. FWJoaquín Zappacosta26′

Club Atlético Mitre

  1. GKIgnacio Pietrobono
  2. DFPablo Minissale
  3. DFFranco Ferrari
  4. DFBrian Mieres
  5. MFOscar Garrido76′
  6. MFJuan Alessandroni
  7. MFMaximiliano Romero
  8. MFMateo Maldonado
  9. MFMartín Vázquez83′
  10. FWFavio Cabral76′
  11. FWMarcos Machado83′
Came on (4)
  1. DFLuciano Federico Correa7′
  2. FWSantiago Rosales14′
  3. FWFelipe Gorla7′
  4. DFGianfranco Lillo14′

Form

Deportivo Morón

  • 11.10away · Club Atlético Estudiantes0:2
  • 03.10All Boys2:1
  • 27.09away · Los Andes1:2
  • 20.09Godoy Cruz1:2
  • 13.09away · Racing de Córdoba2:1

Club Atlético Mitre

  • 11.10Colón0:0
  • 03.10away · CA San Miguel2:0
  • 27.09San Telmo0:2
  • 19.09away · Acassuso0:2
  • 13.09CA Chaco For Ever0:0

Head to head

  • 31.05.2026Club Atlético Mitre — Deportivo Morón1:3
  • 28.09.2025Deportivo Morón — Club Atlético Mitre3:0
  • 25.05.2025Club Atlético Mitre — Deportivo Morón0:0
  • 22.09.2024Deportivo Morón — Club Atlético Mitre1:2
  • 04.05.2024Club Atlético Mitre — Deportivo Morón0:0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →