Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Deportivo Pasto are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Pasto are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Deportivo Pasto are 130 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Deportivo Pasto — No. 20, 9 pts; CD Jaguares — No. 18, 10 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 2 wins, CD Jaguares 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares What is xG? | 1.7–0.8 | |
| Deportivo Pasto not to lose | 85% | |
| CD Jaguares not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto goals
- CD Jaguares goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10Fortaleza FC0:0
- 26.09away · Chicó FC0:3
- 20.09Once Caldas1:0
- 15.09away · América de Cali1:0
- 06.09away · Cúcuta2:2
- 12.10Tolima3:2
- 03.10away · Águilas Doradas0:2
- 28.09Alianza FC1:2
- 23.09away · Independiente Medellín1:2
- 12.09Fortaleza FC2:2
Head to head
- 18.04.2026CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto2:3
- 04.08.2024CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto0:0
- 06.02.2024Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares1:1
- 21.10.2023CD Jaguares — Deportivo Pasto1:0
- 09.09.2023Deportivo Pasto — CD Jaguares1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | CD Jaguares | 12 | 2 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | -10 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →