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Botola Pro (Morocco), round 6 · Friday, 30 October, (UTC+3) · Ben M'Hamed El Abdi Stadium

Difaâ El Jadida — Union Touarga Sport

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Difaâ El Jadida37%
Draw31%
Union Touarga Sport32%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Difaâ El Jadida to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Difaâ El Jadida 37%, Union Touarga Sport 32%, draw 31%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.2).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Difaâ El Jadida are 92 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 4 meetings: Difaâ El Jadida 3 wins, Union Touarga Sport 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Difaâ El Jadida — Union Touarga Sport What is xG?1.3–1.2
Difaâ El Jadida not to lose68%
Union Touarga Sport not to lose63%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes54%
Both teams to score: no46%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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  • Handicap Difaâ El Jadida
  • Difaâ El Jadida goals
  • Union Touarga Sport goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 53′Imran Douieb · Union Touarga Sport0:1
  2. 55′Anas Moulhami · Difaâ El Jadida
  3. 55′Mouad Dahak · Union Touarga Sport
  4. 58′Abderrazak Ennakouss · Difaâ El Jadida
  5. 60′Mehdi Ashabi · Union Touarga Sport
  6. 66′Abderrazak Ennakouss · penalty · Difaâ El Jadida1:1
  7. 94′Omar Arjoune · Union Touarga Sport
  8. 115′Abdellah Farah · Difaâ El Jadida
Substitutions (11)
  1. 46′Nasreddine Moustaghfir ↔ Ayoub Ajerrar · Union Touarga Sport
  2. 46′Zoubir Housni ↔ Anas Nanah · Union Touarga Sport
  3. 59′Yassine Lhjale ↔ Boulkassoum Diarra · Difaâ El Jadida
  4. 59′Abdellah Farah ↔ Mouad Mouchtanim · Difaâ El Jadida
  5. 59′Youssef Michte ↔ Soufiane Abaaziz · Difaâ El Jadida
  6. 73′Omar Arjoune ↔ Saad Lotfi · Union Touarga Sport
  7. 73′Abdeljalil Chaynane ↔ Mouad Dahak · Union Touarga Sport
  8. 103′Oussama Jalfate ↔ Danny · Union Touarga Sport
  9. 105′Anass Mostakim ↔ Ibra Lo · Difaâ El Jadida
  10. 113′Achraf Idrissi ↔ Megue · Difaâ El Jadida
  11. 121′Maodo Dieng ↔ Adam Chakir · Union Touarga Sport

Match statistics

Difaâ El JadidaUnion Touarga Sport
  • 52Possession, %48
  • 9Shots6
  • 4On target4
  • 1Corners4
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Difaâ El Jadida

  1. GKAyoub Ait Wahmane
  2. DFBoulkassoum Diarra59′
  3. DFZakaria Oubraim
  4. DFSoufiane Abaaziz59′
  5. DFAnas Moulhami
  6. MFBrahim El Idrissi Bouzidi
  7. MFMouad Mouchtanim59′
  8. MFMegue
  9. MFAyoub El Khafi
  10. FWIbra Lo
  11. FWAbderrazak Ennakouss
Came on (3)
  1. MFYoussef Michte31′
  2. DFYassine Lhjale31′
  3. MFAbdellah Farah31′

Union Touarga Sport

  1. GKMohamed Reda Asmama
  2. DFAnas Nanah46′
  3. DFMehdi Ashabi
  4. DFRedouane Ait Lemkadem
  5. DFImran Douieb
  6. MFWalid Rhailouf
  7. MFAdam Chakir
  8. MFDanny
  9. FWSaad Lotfi73′
  10. FWAyoub Ajerrar46′
  11. FWMouad Dahak73′
Came on (4)
  1. FWAbdeljalil Chaynane17′
  2. MFOmar Arjoune17′
  3. FWNasreddine Moustaghfir44′
  4. MFZoubir Housni44′

Form

Difaâ El Jadida

  • 25.10away · KACM1:1
  • 17.10MAT Tetouan4:1
  • 10.10away · US Amal Tiznit5:2
  • 03.10Wydad Casablanca0:2
  • 26.09CODM Meknès2:6

Union Touarga Sport

  • 24.10Wydad Casablanca0:1
  • 17.10away · CODM Meknès0:1
  • 08.10RS Berkane0:0
  • 02.10away · Widad Temara1:0
  • 26.09FUS Rabat2:1

Head to head

  • 25.06.2026Union Touarga Sport — Difaâ El Jadida1:2
  • 14.02.2026Difaâ El Jadida — Union Touarga Sport1:0
  • 28.02.2025Difaâ El Jadida — Union Touarga Sport1:0
  • 26.10.2024Union Touarga Sport — Difaâ El Jadida2:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Hassania Agadir622212–10+28
8Difaâ El Jadida622213–1308
9MAS Fès62225–508
10FUS Rabat62224–408
11Union Touarga Sport62224–408
12RS Berkane51404–2+27

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →