Coupe de France, round 6 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3)
Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael — ES Fosseenne
Model prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael to win (47%), came true.
Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael are slightly stronger: 47% against 27%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.2.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael are 143 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael — ES Fosseenne What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Étoile Frejus Saint-Raphael not to lose | 73% | |
| ES Fosseenne not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
Form
- 25.10away · Carnoux FC2:3
- 29.10away · SA Thiers0:2
- 16.10away · Salon Bel Air6:1
- 05.01away · Nice0:2
- 07.12Olympique Alès1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →