Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Famalicão — Arouca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Famalicão are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Famalicão are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Famalicão are 71 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Famalicão — No. 13, 7 pts; Arouca — No. 5, 14 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Famalicão 2 wins, Arouca 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Famalicão — Arouca What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Famalicão not to lose | 75% | |
| Arouca not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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- Arouca goals
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Form
- 12.10Alverca1:4
- 19.09away · Nacional4:0
- 13.09Sporting CP1:1
- 05.09away · Estrela da Amadora2:2
- 30.08Gil Vicente0:0
- 11.10Estrela da Amadora1:0
- 19.09away · Sporting CP2:2
- 13.09Santa Clara1:2
- 07.09away · Estoril0:0
- 29.08Marítimo2:1
Head to head
- 06.03.2026Famalicão — Arouca1:0
- 05.10.2025Arouca — Famalicão1:1
- 05.04.2025Arouca — Famalicão1:2
- 09.11.2024Famalicão — Arouca0:0
- 23.02.2024Arouca — Famalicão3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Académico Viseu | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →