Russian Premier League, round 15 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
FC Rostov — Krylya Sovetov Samara
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Rostov are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Rostov are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- FC Rostov are 121 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Rostov — No. 6, 18 pts; Krylya Sovetov Samara — No. 9, 15 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- FC Rostov: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Rostov 3 wins, Krylya Sovetov Samara 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Rostov — Krylya Sovetov Samara What is xG? | 1.3–1.1 | |
| FC Rostov not to lose | 72% | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Rostov
- FC Rostov goals
- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | FC Rostov | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.93 | 1.63 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.23 | 1.28 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 14.9 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Dynamo Makhachkala3:0
- 28.10Akron Togliatti6:1
- 25.10Lokomotiv Moscow2:0
- 18.10away · Baltika0:0
- 14.10away · CSKA Moscow0:4
- 02.11Zenit St. Petersburg0:3
- 29.10Dynamo Makhachkala2:0
- 24.10away · Rubin Kazan2:0
- 17.10Fakel1:2
- 14.10Baltika0:2
Head to head
- 23.11.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Rostov2:0
- 02.08.2025FC Rostov — Krylya Sovetov Samara1:4
- 07.12.2024FC Rostov — Krylya Sovetov Samara3:1
- 26.07.2024Krylya Sovetov Samara — FC Rostov1:3
- 01.03.2024FC Rostov — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 13 | 6 | +5 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Rostov | 13 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Baltika | 13 | 4 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | FC Orenburg | 13 | 3 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Krylya Sovetov Samara | 13 | 3 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan | 13 | 3 | -5 | 15 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →