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Primera Nacional, round 34 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Ferro Carril Oeste — Racing de Córdoba

Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Ferro Carril Oeste62%
Draw24%
Racing de Córdoba14%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Ferro Carril Oeste to win (62%), came true.

Ferro Carril Oeste are clear favourites: 62% against 14% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Ferro Carril Oeste are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Ferro Carril Oeste are 211 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste 1 win, Racing de Córdoba 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ferro Carril Oeste — Racing de Córdoba What is xG?1.8–0.8
Ferro Carril Oeste not to lose86%
Racing de Córdoba not to lose38%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

Match events

  1. 4′Jonathan Bay · Racing de Córdoba
  2. 53′Enzo Hoyos · Ferro Carril Oeste
  3. 58′Lautaro Parisi · penalty · Ferro Carril Oeste1:0
  4. 78′Gabriel Aranda · Racing de Córdoba
  5. 86′Nicolás Gómez · Ferro Carril Oeste
  6. 89′Alan Olinick · Racing de Córdoba
Substitutions (8)
  1. 63′Gonzalo Castellani ↔ Ángel González · Ferro Carril Oeste
  2. 64′Matías Machado ↔ Tomás Kummer · Racing de Córdoba
  3. 64′Francisco Monticelli ↔ Abel Bustos · Racing de Córdoba
  4. 74′Sergio González ↔ Catriel Peña · Racing de Córdoba
  5. 74′Luciano Viano ↔ Facundo Taborda · Racing de Córdoba
  6. 74′Laureano Marra ↔ Matías Kabalín · Ferro Carril Oeste
  7. 74′Franco García ↔ Nicolás Reniero · Ferro Carril Oeste
  8. 79′Nicolás Gómez ↔ Lautaro Parisi · Ferro Carril Oeste

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Ferro Carril Oeste

  1. GKFernando Monetti
  2. DFFederico Tévez
  3. DFGustavo Canto
  4. DFEmiliano Ozuna
  5. DFNazareno Kihm
  6. MFEnzo Hoyos
  7. MFMatías Kabalín74′
  8. MFFelipe Obradovich
  9. FWNicolás Reniero74′
  10. FWÁngel González63′
  11. FWLautaro Parisi79′
Came on (4)
  1. MFGonzalo Castellani27′
  2. MFNicolás Gómez11′
  3. MFLaureano Marra16′
  4. FWFranco García16′

Racing de Córdoba

  1. GKGonzalo Laborda
  2. DFJonathan Bay
  3. DFGabriel Aranda
  4. DFMarcio Gómez
  5. DFRaúl Chamorro
  6. MFTomás Kummer64′
  7. MFAbel Bustos64′
  8. MFAlan Olinick
  9. MFCatriel Peña74′
  10. FWPablo Chavarría
  11. FWFacundo Taborda74′
Came on (4)
  1. FWSergio González16′
  2. MFMatías Machado26′
  3. MFFrancisco Monticelli26′
  4. MFLuciano Viano16′

Form

Ferro Carril Oeste

  • 11.10away · Central Norte1:1
  • 03.10Deportivo Madryn0:2
  • 27.09away · CA Defensores de Belgrano1:0
  • 19.09Ciudad de Bolívar1:0
  • 13.09away · Almirante Brown0:0

Racing de Córdoba

  • 12.10Los Andes1:0
  • 04.10away · Central Norte1:1
  • 27.09Godoy Cruz2:2
  • 20.09away · Deportivo Madryn0:2
  • 13.09Deportivo Morón1:2

Head to head

  • 30.05.2026Racing de Córdoba — Ferro Carril Oeste0:0
  • 02.09.2025Ferro Carril Oeste — Racing de Córdoba2:2
  • 27.04.2025Racing de Córdoba — Ferro Carril Oeste4:0
  • 01.09.2024Ferro Carril Oeste — Racing de Córdoba2:0
  • 14.04.2024Racing de Córdoba — Ferro Carril Oeste1:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →