Serie A, round 9 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Fiorentina — Atalanta
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Fiorentina 37%, Atalanta 34%, draw 29%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Fiorentina — No. 19, 4 pts; Atalanta — No. 10, 9 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina 2 wins, Atalanta 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fiorentina — Atalanta What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Fiorentina not to lose | 66% | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fiorentina
- Fiorentina goals
- Atalanta goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 22.05.2026Fiorentina — Atalanta1:1
- 30.11.2025Atalanta — Fiorentina2:0
- 30.03.2025Fiorentina — Atalanta1:0
- 15.09.2024Atalanta — Fiorentina3:2
- 02.06.2024Atalanta — Fiorentina2:3
Table
Serie A on the same day
- FrosinoneLeccepreliminary4730221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →